Pièce UF1994.023.c267 - B. Hawrylyshyn (10th Shevchenko Lecture)

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This item is a recording of a conference presentation. Shevchenko as a national poet of Ukraine. Major developments that might take place in the next few decades: long term climatic conditions, changes in climate are less predictable; the capacity for food production will be not as good but the population will be expending sharply – tremendous pressure for food, massive famines. Restructuring of political power is coming. Atomic weaponry is a threat. Expansion of education will result in diffusion of power of political decision making. Physical limits of human activity. Redistribution and optimization of natural resources. Economic shocks for the US: Japan’s economic growth, Vietnam war, Chinese experience. Product life cycle. The USA will not be able to impose their will on other nations. In Europe, new political construction will take place. There will be a power bigger than a nation-state. European countries have similar stages of development and are ready for globalization. Every nation will retain its national heritage but they will unite on a global political level. China’s influence will grow in the decades to come. It will be less dependent on other countries. Unlike the Soviet Union, China retained more equality. American model is not appropriate to countries that have no natural wealth. Japanese had high motivation and an obsession for learning technology while preserving own traditions. They have capacity for national cooperation in the face of a threat. Japanese will be performing another miracle – just watch them. They will be a model for European countries. Soviet Union has tremendous range of natural resources. Its potential productivity is very high. Marks’ proposition was true for limited resources. Communist society is supposed to be highly cooperative in the absence of material scarcity. But USSR is the last empire and it is disintegrating quite quickly. What is awaiting for the USSR? It can become a supplier for more developed countries. Atomic war is also a probability but it could happen only accidentally; possibly a conventional war with China. It does not pay to keep an empire. Now much energy is being wasted on keeping that empire alive instead of developing. Ukraine in this context is a modern nation; it has generous natural resources. It has a necessary infrastructure for an efficient country.